Week 4 Power Rankings: Dolphins and Packers Ascend, NFC South Comes Down to Earth
Week 3 was an absolute frenzy, filled with plays and scorelines that you’ve never seen before. The Dolphins dropped 70 points on the Broncos, or as Shannon Sharpe said it, “A 50 piece and 20 extra flats at no charge.” Oh by the way, Miami had two running backs that scored four touchdowns. The Packers erased a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter, and Vikings out-choked Justin Herbert and the Chargers in the 0-2 bowl. Special teams even got us excited on Sunday; Justin Tucker missed a game-winning 61-yard field goal by about a foot in the same game that Matt Gay became the first kicker in NFL history to make four 50+ yard field goals in one game. And Andrew Beck of the Texans became the first fullback to reach 20 miles per hour in a game when he returned a kickoff for a touchdown.
One of the best segments across sports media is Overreaction Monday—where we all go around a make outlandish takes based on our hearts, and what we saw from the NFL the Sunday prior. And what’s better than Overreaction Monday than Overreaction Wednesday with a side of week 4 power rankings? Will your team rise or fall? Will the 49ers remain in first place? How about the Dallas Cowboys? All that and more lies ahead of you.
32. Chicago Bears (0-3, down 2)
Take: Matt Eberflus will be fired before the season is over.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Nathaniel Hackett was fired after fourteen games into his first and only season as the head coach of the Broncos. Knowing this, nobody is safe from being fired, especially a coach whose team looks worse than last year and has lost 13 games in a row. Matt Eberflus is most definitely not safe for another full season, especially with time running out for Justin Fields to prove himself.
31. Denver Broncos (0-3, down 4)
Take: Sean Payton has been worse than Nathaniel Hackett.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
More Hackett. In an interview with USA Today, Payton called Hackett’s tenure with Denver “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL.” Well, Payton looks to have lost his locker room and any chance at the playoffs after The Dolphins’ 70-20 romp of them last Sunday. It’s one thing to make bad game management decisions like Hackett did, but it’s another to have your team completely unprepared as Payton did against Miami.
30. Carolina Panthers (0-3, down 1)
Take: Andy Dalton would win more games for the Panthers than Bryce Young if he was the starting QB.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Last season, Andy Dalton finished 19th in passing yards, 15th in passing touchdowns, and 10th and passer rating with his top receiver being rookie Chris Olave. Last week, Dalton was 34-58 with 361 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s about on par with the average starting QB’s in the league. Bryce Young has been one of the worst so far. Do I believe Dalton should be the starter moving forward? No. If you’re Frank Reich and Scott Fitterer, you need to continue developing Bryce Young. But the experience of Dalton would win the Panthers 6-7 games.
29. Arizona Cardinals (1-2, up 2)
Take: The Cardinals will finish the season with a positive point differential.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Joshua Dobbs era in Arizona has fared better than anyone could have expected—The Cardinals are 1-2 with a win over the Cowboys, a lead going into every fourth quarter, and a +5 point differential. But the Cards still have one of the worst rosters on paper, and shouldn’t be expected to keep up this pace. In two games last season, the 49ers outscored the Cardinals 76-23. San Fran looks to be even more of a buzzsaw this season and could tank the Cardinals’ point differential in one game.
28. New York Jets (1-2, down 5)
Take: Zach Wilson won’t be the starter next week.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Sadly for New York, Trevor Siemian is not an immediate answer, assuming he is an upgrade from Zach Wilson at all. Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas have regularly pushed the idea that Wilson is “their guy.” Despite an ugly 15-10 loss to the Patriots last week, Saleh was unwavering, stating in his postgame press conference that Wilson gives the Jets the best chance to win. Sadly for disgruntled Jets fans, they’ll have to watch the former number #2 overall pick take the field on Sunday night.
27. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2, down 1)
Take: Davante Adams won’t be a Raider by the end of the season.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Adams said that he “doesn’t have time to sit around” in his week 3 postgame presser. The Raiders superstar receiver is 30 years old, and the Raiders have one of the gloomiest futures—not much talent or draft capital—of any NFL team. Plus, several teams are already interested in Adams. The Browns, Lions, Packers and 49ers all look to be contenders to land him, and with that in mind, it would not surprise me to see Adams request a trade if Las Vegas keeps losing.
26. Minnesota Vikings (0-3, down 5)
Take: The Vikings season is over.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Only 2.5% of teams that start 0-3 reach the playoffs. The Texans are the most recent team to do it, in 2018, but no other team has accomplished this near-impossible feat since the Bills in 1998. Before Buffalo, it only happened four other times. Minnesota will also have to face the Chiefs, 49ers, Bengals, Saints, Lions twice, and Packers twice. They will likely have to win 6 of those 10 games, assuming they don’t lose the other five. That’s an unrealistic expectation for a team that can’t put four quarters together.
25. New York Giants (1-2, no change)
Take: Darren Waller will be a bust in New York.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Waller’s prime was three seasons ago. Whether people like it or not, Darren Waller has not been a good, consistent football player since 2020, and in an underwhelming passing offense as the number one option in New York, it’s fair to expect Waller to struggle. He’s only averaging 44 yards per game through week 3, and as we’ve seen from Waller in 2021 and 2022, injuries are not out of the question either.
24. Houston Texans (1-2, up 8)
Take: C.J. Stroud had had a better first 3 games than any rookie QB in the last 5 years.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
C.J. Stroud has been fantastic, and he is the primary reason why Houston looks ahead of schedule in their rebuild. But Stroud, who has only won one game so far in his career has not played at the level of Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert in their first three career games. Purdy still hasn’t lost a regular season game and had a better QBR than Stroud through his first three starts. As for Herbert, he beat Stroud in QBR, YPG, completion %, and TDs. Tua Tagovailoa, like Purdy, also started out 3-0 with five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
23. Tennessee Titans (1-2, down 8)
Take: The Titans should start a complete rebuild after this season.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Perhaps turning things over to Will Levis or Malik Willis from Ryan Tannehill is the right decision for the Titans to make next season. DeAndre Hopkins is a sensible trade piece after this year ends. However, when the Titans have as much young talent on the defensive line as they do with Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, and Derrick Henry in the backfield, Tennessee should look to bridge their two eras of quarterbacks rather than start from nothing.
22. Los Angeles Rams (1-2, down 2)
Take: Puka Nacua will not reach 1,000 yards this season.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
With Cooper Kupp’s injury, Nacua will have another chance to rack up 100 yards against a poor pass defense that is the Colts. If he hits his average of 113 yards per game, the rookie 5th-round pick will only need to average 42 yards per game, assuming he stays healthy, for the rest of the season. Nacua has already established himself as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target, and there is no reason that he shouldn’t still get a good chunk of targets, even with Kupp’s return looming.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, down 2)
Take: The Buccaneers will finish last in the NFC South.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Third place looks like the most likely finish for Tampa Bay thus far, but assuming the Panthers can even get two games under their belt is a big what-if. Tampa, who is 2-1, has far more talent on offense, and a capable defense. If the Bucs can take one game from Carolina this year, it’s safe to assume that they won’t finish at the bottom of the pile in the NFC South.
20. New England Patriots (1-2, up 4)
Take: Christian Gonzalez is a front runner for DROY
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
A player being a frontrunner doesn’t necessarily mean the player is the front-runner. Right now, for me, Jalen Carter is the frontrunner for DROY, but Will Anderson and Christian Gonzalez are right behind him. Gonzalez is top 10 in PFF grade for all cornerbacks, helped hold Tyreek Hill to 5 receptions and 40 yards, and has already emerged as CB1 for the Patriots. If he keeps this up, he should be a finalist for the award.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2, down 8)
Take: The Jaguars will miss the playoffs.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
At the moment, the AFC South is a toss-up between the Jaguars and the Colts, and I’d throw the Titans into that conversation. If the Jaguars, whose defense is week and offensive skill players have been underwhelming, don’t win the division, I’d pick the 2nd place between the Dolphins and Bills, at least one AFC North wild card team, and the Chargers as favorites to beat out Jacksonville.
18. Washington Commanders (2-1, down 4)
Take: The Commanders are the worst team in the NFC East.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
So far this season, there has been little evidence that Daniel Jones is a better quarterback than Sam Howell, outside of their paychecks. And Washington is superior to New York in every other position group except for perhaps the secondary. The Giants’ schedule is more difficult than Washington’s as well, but even so, I have been far more impressed by Washington than I have been by the Giants.
17. Indianapolis Colts (2-1, up 10)
Take: The Colts should start Gardner Minshew.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
It’s possible that Minshew, who is 11th in the league QBR, and 13th in completion percentage, is the better option at QB for the Colts. After all, Minshew is undefeated as the starter, including a huge road victory against the Ravens last week. But as Minshew confessed in the preseason, it’s understandable why the Colts would want to start Anthony Richardson. He is the franchise guy, and after a short-lived college career, he needs to get as many reps under his belt as he can.
16. New Orleans Saints (2-1, down 8)
Take: The Saints cannot win with Jameis Winston.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
In 2021, Winston started 5-2 in his first season with the Saints before tearing his ACL (I picked Winston as my MVP that year, so I was particularly salty about the news). As the starter for New Orleans, Winston is 6-4. Let’s also not forget that in 2020, Winston was the NFL leader in passing yards. When held in check by his coaches and play-callers, Winston can play competent football—a good pairing with his arm talent. This is enough to win games against a soft schedule with a well-rounded Saints roster.
15. Atlanta Falcons (2-1, down 3)
Take: Desmond Ridder is a bottom-3 starting QB.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
This is a tough one that comes down to opinion. Zach Wilson is obviously worse than everyone because he can’t score or win. Three other guys that are up for debate are Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, and Joshua Dobbs. To me, Dobbs has outplayed Ridder. Fields hasn’t, but if put in the Falcons system, would be far better than Ridder. As for Mayfield, I go back and forth, but either way, Ridder is a bottom 3 starter. Could we see Taylor Heinicke soon?
14. Los Angeles Chargers (1-2, up 2)
Take: Keenan Allen is a top-10 wide receiver.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Anytime you catch 18 passes for 215 yards, you deserve to be a top-10 lock, but this league is packed with talent, so like we did for Ridder, let’s go down the list. I’d definitely take Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and Stefon Diggs over Allen. Allen is in the next tier along with Mike Evans, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ceedee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and DK Metcalf. I believe that Allen’s consistency and versatility, and big play ability give him the edge over McLaurin, Lamb, Metcalf, St. Brown, and Samuel. Thus, give me Keenan Allen in my top 10.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1, up 9)
Take: Najee Harris will not be a starting RB next year.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Harris looks worn out, much like Ezekiel Elliott in his final years with the Cowboys. Harris has never averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in his career. From year one to year two, his total rushing yards decreased by 166 yards. From year two to year three, he’s on pace to go down another 246 yards. Meanwhile, in his rookie year, Jaylen Warren gave the Steelers 4.9 YPC, being the Tony Pollard of the situation in Pittsburgh. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which Warren is the starter next year, and Harris becomes a Zeke or a Cam Akers of the league.
12. Green Bay Packers (2-1, up 6)
Take: Matt LaFleur is a top-5 coach in the league.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
LaFleur is certainly proving his worth without Aaron Rodgers, but let’s pump the breaks a little bit. Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, and Sean McVay are a step ahead of everyone else offensively, Mike Tomlin is the best motivator of men in the league, and Bill Belichick is still an elite defensive and special teams mind. I’d weasel LaFleur past Nick Sirianni and Sean McDermott, but I’d also place John Harbaugh, Doug Pederson, Pete Carroll, and Mike Vrabel above LaFleur.
11. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2, up 6)
Take: The Bengals will win 12 of their last 14 games like last year.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Yesterday, Dianna Russini reported on the Pat McAfee show that Joe Burrow’s calf was incredibly sore after the Bengals win. Cincy earned a three-point victory against the Rams on Monday night, but the offense looked like a shell of itself. Burrow' could not escape the pocket, with his mobility being very compromised, and was inaccurate on more throws than we are used to. Forget about 12 out of 14—the Titans’ defense will present challenges that the Rams’ didn’t, and the schedule only gets harder from there.
10. Seattle Seahawks (2-1, up 3)
Take: The Seahawks will challenge the 49ers in the NFC West race.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
In the Geno Smith era, the 49ers and the Seahawks have played 3 times, and Seattle is 0-3 in those games with an average margin of defeat of 15.3 points. San Francisco looks to be unstoppable at this point in the season, and if they can beat Seattle again in week 11, they can put the division race to bed.
9. Cleveland Browns (2-1, up 1)
Take: The Browns should be favored to win their division.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The AFC North is a complicated division to unpack, and it will more than likely come down to injuries. The Bengals are obviously the favorite when Burrow is healthy, and a mere challenger to the throne when he is not. For the Browns, Nick Chubb is their Burrow, except Cleveland was never the favorite to begin with. Without him, their ceiling is 10 or 11 wins, a total that will be matched by at least one of the Ravens, Bengals, or Steelers.
8. Detroit Lions (2-1, up 1)
Take: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jared Goff will be pro-bowlers.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Jared Goff is a top-6 QB in the NFC, and the numbers would say he’s been a top-3 quarterback thus far. St. Brown is capable of making the pro-bowl, especially in Ben Johnson’s explosive offense. But Gibbs being a top-4 runningback in a conference with Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, DeAndre Swift, Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, and Kenneth Walker, is a stretch.
7. Baltimore Ravens (2-1, down 1)
Take: Lamar Jackson is playing the best football of his career.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Watching 2019 Lamar Jackson was like watching an other-worldly creature. He was unlike anything we’d ever seen before, but I truly believe that as he’s improved his passing game over the last four years, this 2023 version of himself is more complete and reliable in different game scenarios than he ever has been. Jackson is still an electrifying runner—he had 101 yards of 14 carries for 2 touchdowns last week. But when Jackson throws, his completion percentage is higher than any mark of his career, and his passing yards per game are tied with his MVP season.
6. Dallas Cowboys (2-1, down 4)
Take: These are the same old Cowboys.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
As I have stated in past power rankings, this Cowboys roster is far more well-rounded than any other Cowboys team in recent memory. Trevon Diggs’ ACL injury is a great example—now, they’ve got Stephon Gilmore, DaRon Bland, and Noah Igbinoghene to step in. And all great teams have bad games. Kansas City lost to the 4-12-1 Colts last year in week 3 and went on to win the Super Bowl. The Cowboys will be fine.
5. Buffalo Bills (2-1, up 2)
Take: The Bills have a top-3 defense.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Bills gave Zach Wilson nothing on offense in week 1. They demolished Jimmy Garoppolo in week 2 and turned Sam Howell over four times in week three. They’ve given up 9.7 PPG through three weeks—good for second in the league behind Cleveland. They are of the most fluid units in all of football, being coached by Leslie Frazier who is in his seventh season as the Bills’ defensive coordinator. Matt Milano, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tre White, and Ed Oliver have all been there for a while, and Leonard Floyd and Von Miller round it out, making this one of the league’s most talented sides of the ball.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (2-1, no change)
Take: The Chiefs should be Super Bowl favorites.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Just because Taylor Swift came to Arrowhead and the Chiefs blew out the Bears 41-7, it does not mean that they should be favored over the Eagles and Niners, who are proven and have a much more well-rounded roster than Kansas City. The Chiefs now live in a world with their 2023 squad where the best Patrick Mahomes performance couldn’t bail out a bad performance from the rest of the team. For that reason, they are not the favorites in my eyes.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0, no change)
Take: Jalen Hurts will miss the pro-bowl.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Hurts has not inspired in weeks 1-3, yet Philly is still 3-0. Hurts’ competition is much weaker in the NFC than it would be in the AFC, with one of Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Geno Smith being the third-best QB in the conference. Forget the strength of the team, but Hurts is supremely talented himself, as we all know. He’ll pick it up, and he’ll get back to his second straight pro-bowl.
2. Miami Dolphins (3-0, up 3)
Take: Tua will lead the league in passing yards.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Tua only trails Kirk Cousins in passing yards so far, and after a 70-point performance against the Broncos, he will only keep rising, especially when Jaylen Waddle returns. Tagovailoa was 5th in yards per game last season. Mahomes (big lack of weapons), Burrow (injured calf), Herbert (could compete with Tua), and Brady (retired) were the only quarterbacks ahead of him in 2022. Miami has the most explosive offense in the league, and if Tagovailoa is as good as we are making him out to be, he should take advantage.
1. San Francisco 49ers (3-0, no change)
Take: Brock Purdy is a top-5 quarterback.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It’s hard to not deem somebody a top-5 quarterback when they are 9-0 in regular season games. Now, before you go tell me that he has the most stacked roster in the league, hasn’t Joe Burrow lost 6 of his last 19 regular season games with the best wide receiver core in the league? Josh Allen lost three regular season games last year with the best roster in the NFL, didn’t he? Another thing that holds Purdy back in the conversation is the fact that he’s basically only had half a season of work. But at some point, we need to recognize that Purdy is the truth and that he has shown no signs of slowing down.
