Week 5 Panel Picks
Quiz: Is the panel’s current win percentage higher or lower than it was after week four last year?
If you answered “no,” you’d be correct. Last year, we had a win percentage of 0.601 after four weeks. This year, that number is just 0.566. Not great.
Perhaps the reason for our turmoil is the new lock rules. After all, having to pick at least two upsets every week and a five and seven point underdog every four weeks does cause us to go against our beliefs at times. However, incredibly, in games where someone picks an underdog of at least +6, we are 13-14 (very solid considering that nine of those losses came from people picking the Patriots.
It could be Jackson’s season from hell weighing down our percentage—his 32-36 record is on the wrong side of the panel’s short history. However, it’s not just last place that’s lower than last year. Every single place in the standings is worse this season than it was in 2023.
The truth is, the NFL has been too unpredictable this year. The craziest stat you’ll see all day is that of the 17 games where is a team is favored by at least 6.5 points, the favorite is 6-11. The average moneyline for the favorites in those games is -333 which converts to a 76.91% win percentage. The probability that 17 teams with a 76.91% chance of winning go 6-11 is just 0.00025 a.k.a. 1 in 4,000 odds. Insane.
So, in other words, don’t blame us. It’s been a rough first four weeks but it’s not about how you start, it’s about how you finish. That’s why we’ve saved our best picks for week five.
Primetime Games
Early Window
Late Window
Most alike picks: Four separate duos had 11 of the 14 game picks in common.
Least alike picks: Josh Jackson disagreed on over half the games, picking eight of them differently.
Most upsets picked: Ben picked the most upsets with five.
Fewest upsets picked: Theo only picked two upsets.
Most picks with majority: Theo and I were in the majority all but one time.
Most picks against majority: The Middlebury madcaps—Ray and Jackson—wavered from the majority four times each.
What Stands Out?
The Falcons and Jets were two of the teams with the most hype surrounding them entering this season thanks to new acquisitions and the return of Aaron Rodgers. However, clearly, the on-paper roster doesn’t translate to on-field success because two teams that have proven their worth on the field—the Bucs and Vikings—are both favored in 6-2 votes over Tampa Bay and New York, respectively.
Theo made a point to the panel earlier this week that he hasn’t picked a correct lock once this season. So far, he’s gone with the Bengals (lost to the Patriots), the Ravens (lost to the Raiders), the 49ers (lost to the Rams), and the Jets (lost to the Broncos). Fellow Seahawks lockers this week, beware.
When was the last time a team ranked 32nd in the power rankings was unanimously picked to win? Probably never, considering this is just the 29th week of panel picks. Well, now the Patriots have done it against the Dolphins. I guess that’s what losing my 19 to the Titans at home gets you.
So far this season, the Bills have received 22 votes to the Texans’ 27 despite looking like the far sharper team. The two are squaring off this week and the Bills have (rightfully) won the vote by a margin of 5-3.
2014 was the last time the Colts beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville and Indianapolis has been wildly inconsistent to start the season. Yet, they received four votes against the Jags this week. Are the Jags really that bad?
Playoff Picture
Let’s pretend our majority pick in each matchup won this weekend. Here are the projected playoff matchups on Wild Card Weekend.
AFC
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs BYE | Until the Chiefs lose a game, they will occupy the 1 seed.
(2) Buffalo Bills vs (7) Indianapolis Colts | These teams squared of in the 2021 2v7 Wild Card matchup. Buffalo won 27-24.
(3) Pittsburgh Steelers vs (6) Baltimore Ravens | This would be the first time the Ravens have been in the playoff picture this season.
(4) Houston Texans vs (5) Denver Broncos | Houston beat Denver 22-17 in week 13 last year.
NFC
(1) Minnesota Vikings vs BYE | The last time the Vikings finished the season as the 1 seed was in 1998.
(2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs (7) Green Bay Packers | Tampa Bay beat Green Bay 34-20 in week 14 last season.
(3) Washington Commanders vs (6) San Francisco 49ers | These two teams match up in weeks 12 and 14.
(4) Seattle Seahawks vs (5) Detroit Lions | Detroit beat Seattle 42-29 last Monday Night.