You Are What Your Record Says You Are
“You are what your record says you are.”
Across NFL history, Bill Parcells’ quote has been replayed over and over, and is a lesson for all teams to play for a full 60 minutes to avoid handing undeserved wins to an opponent. Many GMs and coaches preach Parcells’ saying to their teams because they believe it to be true—record is truly the best indicator of how good a team is. In today’s article, I’m going to refute that.
The Minnesota Vikings are one of seven 6-6 teams in the NFL right now. The Vikings rank 15th in total DVOA (1.4%) and 11th in point differential (+21) against a strength of schedule that was declared the 6th toughest prior to the start of the season.
Historically, these are pretty solid numbers for a team with an even record. Heck, the Falcons are 25th in DVOA and 19th in point differential this season and lead the NFC South with an even record, and the 6-6 Seahawks are negative in point and yardage differential. The last three teams to finish a season with an even record were the Raiders, Bears, and Cardinals in 2020. The three teams averaged a negative DVOA and combined for a point differential of +1. The year before, the Bears and Steelers each had even records despite rankings 28th and 29th in total points scored. The Bears even made the playoffs that season, and surprise surprise, only scored 9 points in the wild card round.
Back in 2011, the Raiders posted an 8-8 record, putting up a -74 point differential—10th worst in the league. SRS—a simple calculation of a team’s true strength based on their opponents and offensive and defensive statistics—said that the Raiders were 26th in simple rating that season. And they weren’t even the worst 8-8 team in their division. That was the Broncos, whose -81 point differential, and 27th ranked SRS make them undoubtedly one of worst 8-8 division winners of all time.
The 1991 Jets—arguably the worst 8-8 team ever—actually had a positive point differential, but quarterback Ken O’Brien only threw 10 touchdowns in 16 starts, and every team the Jets beat was a non-playoff team.
And then there’s the other side of spectrum where teams that play like a Super Bowl contender finish with a mediocre record. I asked ChatGPT who the best 8-8 team ever is and it said the 2008 Saints who were 5th in offense, 10th in defense, but dealt with numerous injuries and a tough schedule. The best non-playoff team of all time was the 2010 San Diego Chargers (I didn’t need AI for this one) who finished 1st in yards and 1st in yards allowed but had such horrific special teams that they finished 9-7.
In my opinion, the 2019 Cowboys, who had the league’s best offense in terms of yardage, were the best 8-8 team ever. That could be recency bias, but they were 3rd in passing, 5th in rushing, and 6th in scoring. On defense, they allowed the 10th fewest passing yards, 11th fewest rushing yards, and the 11th fewest points, and their +113 point differential ranked 6th in the league.
Top 10 point teams in 2019 in terms of point differential
Baltimore Ravens (14-2): +249
New England Patriots (12-4): +195
San Francisco 49ers (13-3): +169
Kansas City Chiefs (12-4): +143
New Orleans Saints (13-3): +117
Dallas Cowboys (8-8): +113
Minnesota Vikings (10-6): +104
Tennessee Titans (9-7): +71
Green Bay Packers (13-3): +63
Buffalo Bills (10-6): +55
Clearly, the Cowboys 8-8 record is an outlier here.
However, there’s one team with an even record that stands out to me as a candidate for the best .500 team of all time. You might’ve guessed it by now: the 2023 Buffalo Bills.
The Bills show every sign of being one of the best teams in the league. Just last year, they were the preseason Super Bowl favorites by a country mile due to the belief that they could legitimately go 17-0 with a roster as talented as theirs. Though they didn’t achieve this nearly impossible feat, their 13-3 record was still the third best in the league. And that roster, for the most part, has stayed intact. Josh Allen is still performing at a high level, James Cook and Dalton Kincaid are playing better than Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox were last season, the wide receiver core and offensive line have essentially stayed the same. And aside from some unfortunate injuries on the defensive side of the ball, this year’s unit looks about the same.
However, teams can overperform one year and underperform the next. The Giants made the divisional round in 2022 and are dead last in DVOA this year. What I’m trying to say is that a team’s variance from one season to the next often comes down to the numbers as opposed to the roster. Let’s start by using about some of the stats I brought up earlier in the article when talking about the Bills.
Buffalo, despite being 10th in the AFC and T-15th in the league for record is 5th in point differential and 8th in yardage differential, putting them in a tier of their own behind Miami, Dallas, San Francisco, and Baltimore, and ahead of Kansas City and Detroit. The combined record of those six teams is 53-19, and Buffalo is right in the weeds at 6-6.
Perhaps the more telling stat is DVOA, which Buffalo ranked top-3 in from 2020-2022. As of today, 8 of the top-9 teams by DVOA are the teams with the best records in the league—San Fransisco, Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Philadelphia. I’ll let you find the 9th team.
Lo and behold, there are the Buffalo Bills—ranked 6th in DVOA in a cloud of all the best teams in the league. And while this may not seem extremely out of the ordinary, don’t be fooled. Since 2020 (the furthest I can see DVOA stats without paying an absurd amount of money for it), no team in the top-8 in DVOA has missed the playoffs. These Bills are on track to become the first of at least the last 32 teams to miss the postseason with a top-8 DVOA.
Several sources calculate how lucky a team has been in a given season and the record that they are playing like vs the record that they have. Team Rankings and Action Network released their rankings earlier this week, and it should be noted that they have very different formulas, so for many teams, there is a lot of discrepancy in ranking from source to source.
I just talked about how the two sources calculate luck in very different ways. Well, there are only three teams that have a consensus rank from source to source, and the along with the Texans and Bears, there is agreement that the Bills have been the unluckiest team in the league this year. What’s more, Action Network says that the Bills have played like an 8-4 team this year as opposed to the 6-6 record that they have.
Countless other numbers will back up that the Bills are one of the greatest teams to ever have an even record this late in the season.
Only the Bills, Cowboys, and Ravens rank in the top-12 in offense, defense, and special teams.
Despite interception troubles, Josh Allen is in the top-3 in touchdown to turnover margin for the fourth year in a row.
These statistics tell an incredible story, but I’d have to invent an equation to truly know if they are THE best .500 of all time, so I’ll ask you.