Recapping the NFL Season: Panel Picks Results and Looking at Pre-Season Predictions

Mar 18, 2024

For those of you who were invested in the panel picks series throughout the NFL season, I apologize for stopping short after the divisional round. As I brought up in my Boston Celtics article, the wear and tear of writing picks, game previews and power rankings every week was too much to handle at the time. I’m writing this article today in part to finish off the panel picks and give credit where credit is due, but also to round up the 2023-2024 NFL season (better late the never, I hope) so we can move onto NFL free agency and NBA coverage at Around the Associations.

Panel Picks

Final Standings

Congratulations to Theo who has led for about half the season (back and forth with George, and overtaking me early on). His highly conservative style was hated by most, but as a wise man once said, “Don’t hate the player, hate the game.” I’ve known Theo for 14 years and I should’ve known he would have taken this route. As for Josh, he had a horrendous season and will be punished for his wrongdoings. The extent of the punishment will be filmed and revealed over the summer, so you won’t miss out. Thanks to everyone for competing. We’ll be back next season. Now, let’s see how I did with my own predictions this year.

Assessing My Predictions

In this segment of the article, we’ll revisit all my my old predictions articles and see if I really have what it takes to analyze sports.

5 Players I Expect to Make a Leap

Breece Hall: B

Hall totaled 1585 total yards from scrimmage which is about as well as he could’ve done considering the Jets’ non-existent passing game and their morbid offensive line. However, he wasn’t enough to carry the Jets to the playoffs like the top runningbacks might have, and didn’t make the Pro-Bowl outright.

Tariq Woolen: D

Woolen looked bad in all aspects this year. His technique, instincts, and discipline were missing from his rookie season, and the Seattle secondary was one of the most disappointing in the whole league.

Rhamondre Stevenson: D+

Expected to be a bell cow in the Patriots backfield this season, Stevenson only had 619 yards (less than half of my projection). He had career lows in yards per carry and touchdowns and missed five games.

Jahan Dotson: C+

Dotson didn’t regress, but did virtually nothing outside of scoring three more touchdowns to separate his performance from his rookie season. He only hit 523 yards, and only had 14 more receptions than last year despite Sam Howell being the league leader in passing after 10 weeks and playing five more games than last season.

Jaelan Phillips: A-

Phillips, who was my favorite candidate to break out in 2023 was on track for an A/A+ season before suffering an achilles injury in week 12. Still, in eight games, Phillips was a pro-bowl hopeful, had 6.5 sacks, an interception, and was among the league leaders in QB pressures.

ATA Podcast 6: Assessing Win Totals and Predicting Awards

On this podcast, George and I looked at ESPN’s projected win totals for NFL team and gave ten teams that we were confident would go over or under on their total. Here’s what I had.

49ers over 10.5 wins: Yes (12 wins)
Commanders over 6.5 wins: No (4 wins)
Titans over 7.5 wins: No (7 wins)
Bears under 7.5 wins: Yes (7 wins)
Saints over 9.5 wins: No (8 wins)
Raiders over 6.5 wins: Yes (8 wins)
Dolphins over 9.5 wins: Yes (11 wins)
Cardinals under 4.5 wins: Yes (4 wins)
Steelers over 8.5 wins: Yes (10 wins)
Cowboys over 9.5 wins: Yes (12 wins)
Overall record: 7-3

For the second portion of the podcast, we predicted award winners for this winner. Here’s what I came up with.

Most Valuable Player: Joe Burrow Grade: F
Coach of the Year: Mike Vrabel Grade: C-
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Bijan Robinson Grade: B-
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Will Anderson Grade: A
Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey Grade: A
Defensive Player of the Year: Micah Parsons Grade: B
Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin Grade: I have no idea
Most Improved Player: Rhamondre Stevenson. Grade: D
Most Disappointing Person: Kevin Stefanski Grade: F

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Three Teams I Expect to Surprise Everyone

Washington Commanders: 10-7, 6 seed, lose in Divisional Round

Grade: D-

Everything about this prediction has F written all over it, but I’ll give myself some saving grace because Sam Howell played well for much of the season, as I thought he would. But I was extremely high on their pass rush which was blown up halfway through the season, their receiving core, which was very inconsistent, Brian Robinson, who was mediocre at best, and Ron Rivera, who was fired after week 18.

Miami Dolphins: 11-6, 6 seed, lose in Super Bowl

Grade: B-

Sure, Miami finished 11-6 as the 6 seed, so that looks good for me, but if we’re being honest with ourselves, that wasn’t very bold. What was bold was picking a team that collapses down the stretch, can’t play in cold weather, and backs down to good competition to make the Super Bowl. I won’t be tricked by the Dolphins again any time soon.

Tennessee Titans: 10-7, win division, 4 seed, lose in Wild Card round

Grade: B-

A B- seems high considering that the Titans finished last in the AFC South, but they went 7-10 while going 2-5 in games decided by less than four points, leading me to believe that they are better than their record. Part of my prediction relied upon no AFC South team reaching more than 10 wins a.k.a. the Jaguars being a disappointment which I got right, so I’ll myself a bit of credit there.

Why One Team’s Downfall Is Approaching

In this article, I outlined why the Dolphins were a fraudulent contender. They were 5-2 at the time, and despite coming off a 31-17 drumming from the Eagles, they had the best offense in the league by a wide margin. Here were some of the graphs that supported my theory.

My first argument was that the Dolphins don’t defend well enough. Their defensive DVOA and opponent PPG did not compare to the conference finalists in the last previous three seasons. The Dolphins ended up finishing 19th in DVOA and 22nd in opp. PPG, proving my suspicion correct.

I also pounded the popular argument that the Dolphins beat up on bad competition but can’t handle the best teams. From the time I wrote my article until the end of the season, Miami was 5-1 against teams under .500 and 1-4 vs teams over .500.

In the green and red graphs, I argued that teams such as the Bills and Browns had much better chances of making runs. Buffalo, who was 4-3 at the time made it a round further that the Dolphins, who were knocked out of the playoffs 26-7 by the Chiefs in the wild card round. The Browns reached the postseason but got it handed to them by the Texans in a Wild Card Weekend beatdown. All in all, that might be the only flaw in my prediction.

Grade: A

Week 12 Power Rankings: Chargers and Jets in Shambles, Packers on the Rise

In this edition of the power rankings, I predicted every team’s remaining 6-7 games. I’ll go over some of my best predictions and some of my worst.

Good: The NFC South

Somehow, I went 23-5 in the league’s most unpredictable division including going perfect on the Panthers and Falcons and 6-1 on the Saints.

Additionally, despite being 4-6 at the time, I correctly predicted that the Bucs would win five out of seven to win the NFC South. I also have every team’s record and final standing correct—probably one of the best predictions I’ll ever make if you really think about it.

Bad: Two Wild-Card Burnouts

The Steelers were all over the place down the stretch of the season and I could quite put a finger on them. I went 1-6 in their final seven games, completely mixing up their three-game winning streak and their three-game losing streak.

As for the Eagles, I, like nearly everybody else, did not anticipate their collapse from 10-1 to 11-6. The only results of theirs that I picked correctly were their loss to Dallas and win over New York in their first matchup.

Good: The Bills Turning the Corner

I saw the Bills losing to Philadelphia to be pushed against the brink of elimination, but correctly identified when they’d turn things around and go on a run. If only I predicted that they would beat Miami in week 18.

Bad: The NFC North

I missed the mark on the majority of the NFC North’s remaining games including going 1-5 on Minnesota. I must’ve hopped on the Josh Dobbs hype train before it left the station. 3-4 on the Packers didn’t help either.

Record by Division

NFC South: 23-5
AFC East: 19-8
AFC West: 16-11
NFC West: 15-12
NFC East: 14-12
AFC South: 15-13
AFC North: 13-14
NFC North: 13-15
Overall: 128-90

Grade: B+

You Are What Your Record Says You Are

I only had one prediction in this article and it was in the form of a poll. I asked: who wins at a neutral site? Buffalo or Philadelphia? This article was written after the Eagles beat the Bills to improve to 10-1 and put the Bills at 6-6. There were six responses to the poll, and five of them said the Eagles would win. I was the only person that said the Bills would win.

The rest of the article was about how I believed the Bills were one of the greatest 6-6 teams of all time and that they’d still make the playoffs. They ended up reeling off five straight wins to win the AFC East.